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How world food prices evolved in May. Experts expect a significant drop in grain production this year


The FAO publishes its own Food Price Index on a monthly basis, which measures price changes in a food basket consisting of cereals, vegetable oils, dairy products, meat and sugar.

According to the quoted source, in May 2022, this index decreased by 0.6% compared to April, to 157.4 points, compared to the revised value of 158.3 points reached in April.

Despite the timid decline in May, this index is 22.8% higher than in May 2021, an increase that is due in part to concerns about the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Agerpres.

The decline in the FAO index in May compared to April is due to declines in the price of dairy products, vegetable oils and sugar.

On the other hand, the price of meat calculated by the FAO has risen to an all-time high, and the price of cereals has also risen by 2.2% as a result of the 5.6% rise in wheat prices compared to April and 56.2 % compared to May last year.

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According to the FAO, international wheat prices have risen in response to India’s announced export ban as well as concerns about crop conditions in several exporting countries and a revision of Ukraine’s production forecasts due to the war.

However, vegetable oil prices fell by 3.5% compared to April, one of the reasons being Indonesia’s decision to lift the embargo on palm oil exports, coupled with reduced global demand for palm oil. soybeans and rapeseed in view of the high costs of recent months

“Export restrictions create uncertainty in the market and can trigger price explosions and increased volatility. The drop in vegetable oil prices shows how important it is when these restrictions are lifted and exports are allowed to run smoothly, “said FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero Cullen.

Estimates of cereal production

Also Friday, the FAO released a set of estimates for world grain production in 2022. The FAO expects world grain production to fall to 2.784 billion tonnes, 16 million tonnes less than the estimated 2021 production. The most significant decline is expected in maize, followed by wheat and rice, while barley and sorghum production is expected to increase.

“These estimates are based on the conditions of the crops already sown and the planting intentions for the crops to be sown,” the FAO said.

In addition, the amount of grain used worldwide is projected to decline by 20% in 2022/23 from 2021/2022 to 2.788 billion tonnes, which would be the first contraction in 20 years.

The source said that this decrease would be the result of a decrease in the amount of cereals used as animal feed, while the global consumption of cereals for food purposes would continue to increase in parallel with the evolution of the world’s population.

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