Spring Economic Forecasts, published by the EU Executive, show that in both the EU and the euro area, real GDP growth is expected to be 2.7% this year, significantly lower than the 4% advance forecast in the EU. February, before the start of the war in Ukraine. Growth forecasts for next year were also revised down to 2.3% in both the EU and the euro area from 2.8% (2.7% for the euro area) in February.
This is the first comprehensive estimate of the economic costs of the war in Ukraine for the 19 eurozone countries and the 27 EU member states.
“Before the outbreak of war, the forecast for the EU economy was long and robust. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine created new challenges, just as the EU was recovering from the economic impact of the pandemic,” the European Commission said in a statement. of press.
“By exerting new upward pressure on commodity prices, creating new disruptions to supply chains and increasing uncertainty, the war has exacerbated pre-existing barriers to growth that were previously expected to be reduced,” he added.
With regard to inflation, which the European Central Bank wants to keep at 2%, the new forecasts of the European Commission show that in the European Union the inflation rate would increase from 2.9% in 2021 to 6.8% in 2022, to return to 3.2% in 2023. A comparable increase is expected in the euro area, where inflation is expected to reach 6.1% in 2022, to return to 2.7% in 2023. Before the war, the EU executive predicted that eurozone prices would rise by 3.5% in 2022 and 1.7% in 2023, while in the EU, prices were projected to rise by 3.9% in 2022 and by 20%. 1.9% in 2023.
The European Commission publishes two sets of detailed forecasts each year (spring and autumn) and two sets of intermediate forecasts (winter and summer). The interim forecasts include the annual and quarterly GDP and inflation values of all Member States for the current and next year, as well as aggregate data for the EU and the euro area.
The next European Commission forecasts will be the economic forecasts for the summer of 2022, scheduled to be published in July 2022.
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